Happily 4/1 win
Happily & September, Reverse Forecast
The first race in the Breeders Cup series presents one of the best chances for the Europeans to score.
There’s a strong in depth team led by Aidan O’Brien’s Happily and her stablemate September. Aidan’s son Joseph sends Now Your Talking and Fossy Stack will be hoping his 2nd reserve Goodthingstaketime will get in if two come out. The English team is led by John Gosden’s Lady Capulet and Roger Varian is sending Madeline.
The Ballydoyle pair are led by Happily who took the G1 Moyglare Stakes over seven furlongs (September back in third) , Ireland’s leading juvenile fillies race. She then went to France and contested the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc day, France’s leading two-year old race, where she beat the colts over a mile. September followed up the Moyglare third going to Ascot for the G1 Fillies Mile where she was denied a nose by Laurens.
Juliet Capulet owned by Cheveley Park Stud won the Rockfel Stakes, a G2 at Newmarket over seven furlongs while Madeline ran third to Clemmie over six furlongs in the G1 Cheveley Park Stakes also at Newmarket with Now Your Talking a head back in fourth. If Clemmie were here she’d start favourite for this.
The American fillies can’t boast anything like the form of the Europeans at G1 level because the pattern racing programme doesn’t cater for two year old fillies on turf until this event. That doesn’t mean they can’t compete. Chad Brown’s pair Rushing Fall winner of the G3 Jessamaine Stakes over this trip and Significant Fall who beat Best Performance in the G3 Miss Grillo Stakes can’t be dismissed. In Canada Capala Princess did win the Natalama Stakes upgraded to G1 status this year where she beat Dixie Moon.
The Europeans will have the edge in experience at the level required however what will be new to all of them will be the tight turns and short straight common to American tracks. It’s more particular pronounced at Del Mar where the straight measures just 919 feet. They will also have to cope with a firm track something they won’t have come across either before.
There’s little between the Ballydoyle pair and they are both a cut above the rest.
In early summer when September won the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot she would have been ahead of Happily in the pecking order. Since Happily has had her behind on the two occasions they met, in the Moyglare and earlier in the Debutante Stakes.
The draw is a big issue here and wide is not where you want to be. Happily will break from gate two with September in ten. Happily’s win in France against the colts was very impressive, she had Godolphin’s Masar 1 1/2 L back in third who runs later tonight in the Juvenile Turf Mile. September also beat him 2 1/4 L in the Chesham and the line just came too soon for her in the Fillies Mile last time out.
Marginal preference is for Happily on account of the draw. If they can handle the turns (and the ground) then they can fill the first two spots.