Category Archives: Pattern Racing World Championships 2018

Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas (Group 1)

Happily 27th July 2017 at Leopardstown

We recommended Romanised to win the Irish 2000 Guineas yesterday. Today we access the fillies version.

Happily will start a short price 6/4F to give Aidan O’Brien a third G1 of the season.

She went off favourite for the Newmarket equivalent two weeks ago coming home in third. Her best work was coming towards the end of the race, she looked in trouble entering the dip but she came of it well but she couldn’t get there. Like many of Aidan’s she’ll improve for the run. Godolphin’s Solioquy was a length behind her.

Her juvenile form now looks very good, a winner twice at top-level she took The Moyglare Stud Stakes where she beat her more fancied stable companion Magical and she then went on to France on Arc day where she beat the colts in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. Olmedo who was second advertised the form very well when winning the French 2000 Guineas two weeks ago and Masar who was third filled the same spot in the English 2000 Guineas three weeks ago.

Clemmie will also make the trip up the road from Ballydoyle. She is another juvenile G1 winner having taken the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September. Her stablemate Could It Be Love ran in the Poule, The French 1000 Guineas a couple of weeks ago and put in a decent performance running eighth. Ryan Moore asked a lot of her by taking the lead early on and she only faded late in the straight. The other Ballydoyle filly Most Gifted was a hands and heels winner of a maiden at Cork last weekend where she beat Hence That form now has a certain shine to it considering Hence’s victory here yesterday.

Johnny Murtagh is the beneficiary of the split between Qatar Racing and Ger Lyons and now this daughter of Frankel is asked to step up on her Athasi Stakes win at Naas two weeks ago. She did it well as she did when winning on debut at Leopardstown last year. Her run in between in the Rockfel Stakes last September was disappointing.

Who’s Steph on her way out to win The Derrinstown Stud Guineas Trial at Leopardstown

Ger Lyons is represented by Who’s Steph who has been impressive in both the Guineas Trials she’s won at Leopardstown this year. She changed hands before her last run and now races in George Strawbridge’s famous white and green colours. In the first trial in April, The Leopardstown Guineas Trial she beat Dermot Weld’s Yulong Gold Fairy (then subsequently 5th to Lightening Quick at Naas) and in The Derrinstown 1000 Guineas Trail she had Kevin Prendergast’s Alghabrah back in third. Both oppose her again here.

Chiara Luna winning on debut at Leopardstown last August

Dermot Weld’s other runner Chiara Luna made a winning debut last August at Leopardstown. There was a lot of talk about her before the race that day and she easily justified the money that came for her. She has only had the one run since when fourth in the Derrinstown Guineas Trial. She ran green and didn’t get a clear run but when she got out she began to eat up the ground.

Of the other’s Jim Bolger’s filly Sciobh Nua is asked a big question on only her second start,  third in a maiden last Sunday at Naas while Alpha Centauri went off favourite for The Moyglare last year where she disappointed. Her run back in the Ballylinch Stud 1000 Guineas Trial was equally disappointing. There was no suggestion of the filly we saw early last summer who won her first two before being just touched off at Royal Ascot in The Albany Stakes.

Happily can only improve for the run at Newmarket and is priced to so. An alternative to her is Dermot Weld’s filly Chiara Luna. She may turn out to be a very talented filly with a serious turn of foot.

Recommendation: Happily 6/4 win

                                       Chiara Luna 10/1 ew

                                      Happily and Chiara Luna Reverse Forecast 

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Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1)

Zibha entering the parade ring at Leopardstown before winning the Amethyst Stakes

To a large extent this race revolves around Saxon Warrior the English Guineas winner. He’s an absentee here, instead being prepared for the Epsom Derby next week where he is the odds on favourite.

The favourite here is Elarqam, Mark Johnston’s raider from England ran fourth at Newmarket with Gustav Klimt back in sixth. The form of the English race has taken a significant boost with the fifth horse home Roaring Loin have taken The Dante in impressive fashion at York last week. He’s now a live contender for Epsom.

Gustav Klimt was a bit disappointing at Newmarket. He’d gone there after winning The Leopardstown Guineas Trial on heavy ground in really good style where he beat Imaging by 1 3/4L and US Navy Flag by 15 L. We spoken at length about the latter in previous blogs on the French and English Guineas. He was our choice for both.

In France US Navy Flag did as expected. Ryan Moore who will ride him again here tried to bully the race going off in front but the uneven surface at Longchamp led him to stumble badly in the straight and he was caught and past by a closing pack to finish fifth beaten 3L by Olmedo. The track subsequently had to be changed for the running of the French 1000 Guineas with senior jockeys describing it as dangerous. He must be forgiven for the run. Aidan also runs Spanish Point most likely the pacesetter and Threeandfourpence who comes back having had no run at Churchill Downs last time out when the rain ruined any chance he had.

The home contingent also includes Zibha, Would Be King, Landshark, Romanised and Theobald.

Would Be King at Leopardstown last July

Zibha is unbeaten over three runs, the first two at Dundalk on the all-weather and his last run, his first on turf, at Leopardstown when he took the Amethyst Stakes over a mile beating older horses in a very pleasing performance. Three year old’s beating older horses at this stage of their careers is always worth noting.

Would Be King was second to Imaging (who has been taken out of this race) with Romanised back in sixth, in the Tetrarch Stakes over 7f at Naas a couple of weeks ago. The former from the Ger Lyons yard is still a maiden after five run’s but he’s boxed with some very good colts in those runs notably when second to Gustav Klimt when he won his maiden last July. Romanised can’t be dismissed either, his form with Masar (third at Newmarket) when second in the Solario last year at Sandown reads well. In the Tetrarch he was coming with a run late on when taken out of it by Hence. He looked unlucky.

Landshark is the least experienced in the field having just had the two runs as a juvenile. In the latter he was beaten 6L by US Navy Flag in the Round Tower last August.

There is another English raider, Symbolization. Godolphin must hold him in high regard asking him to step up from a handicap win last time out to contest this.

This will be run on fast ground. It will suit some better than others. Elarqam will benefit from it but he got caught out by the Ballydoyle pacesetters at Newmarket and the same may happen here again. If Ryan Moore doesn’t decide to boss it from the off you’d expect that Spanish Point will set factions slower than ideal for Mark Johnston’s colt and that it will be designed to bring the O’Brien trio Threeandfourpence , Gustav Klimt and US Navy Flag with a finishing kick.

That might just suit Romanised very nicely. As a son of Holy Roman Emperor he should love the ground and he could get up late to do the O’Brien fancied pair at the death, and at a big price.

Recommendation: Romanised 33/1 ew

 

 

Emirates Poule d’Essai des Poulains (Group 1) (3yo Colts) (Turf) (3yo)

US Navy Flag on Debut at Naas last year

US Navy Flag missed Newmarket. Aidan O’Brien decided to keep him for this assignment instead. We have undated our blog of last week on the Qipco 2000 Guineas where we concentrated on US Navy Flag whom we hoped would win there.

He was beaten 15L by Gustav Klimt on his seasonal debut in the Leopardstown Guineas Trial four weeks ago on heavy ground but his form of last year would suggest he has a strong chance in this race.

He’s obviously a hardy soul having raced eleven times last year improving throughout the season. He was on the go from early May when he made his debut at Naas through to November at Del Mar where he contested the Juvenile Dirt at the Breeders Cup. He didn’t handle the surface and was well beaten there hence the change in the Ballydoyle plans where Mendelssohn became the choice for the Kentucky Derby.

Go back one run and you’ll find he was a good winner of the Dewhurst over 7f where he got the better of Mendelssohn and prior to that he’d shown a serious turn of foot to win the Middle Park over six furlongs, the first G1 he captured.

The question is, is he a sprinter or a miler?

His debut at Naas was over 5f which proved too sharp however up to the Middle Park his runs were all then at 6f.

He’s by War Front out of Misty For Me. She got a mile and then some so you’d say he’s likely to find the mile within his compass and when asked he’d no problem in stepping up to 7f in the Dewhurst. He bossed both the Middle Park and Dewhurst grabbing the ground and powering out of the dip on both occasions. He could do the same here.

The Ballydoyle horses always come on a lot from their first run and if that applies to US Navy Flag then he’s got a great chance here. If we thought him good enough to win at Newmarket then we think he’s good enough to take the French equivalent.

Recommendations: US Navy Flag 8/1 e/w

                                         

 

 

Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (G1) & Kentucky Derby (G1)

US Navy Flag on Debut at Naas last year

It’s Wednesday before the first classic of the season on Saturday, the 2000 Guineas. It might be three days away but already the forgotten horse in this field is surely US Navy Flag.

On official ratings he’s 9 lbs clear of his stablemate and current 5/2 race favourite Gustav Klimt and 2 lbs clear of his other stable companion and 5/1 second favourite Saxon Warrior yet the market puts him in as a 20/1 shot.

Granted he was beaten 15L by Gustav Klimt on his seasonal debut in the Leopardstown Guineas Trial three weeks ago but that was on heavy ground and his form of last year would suggest he has a strong chance of bridging that gap on ground that could ride good come Saturday afternoon.

He’s obviously a hardy soul having raced eleven times last year improving throughout the season. He was on the go from early May when he made his debut at Naas through to November at Del Mar where he contested the Juvenile Dirt at the Breeders Cup. He didn’t handle the surface and was well beaten there hence the change in the Ballydoyle plans where Mendelssohn became the choice for the Kentucky Derby.

Go back one run and you’ll find he was a good winner of the Dewhurst over 7f where he got the better of Mendelssohn, now joint favourite for the Kentucky Derby and prior to that he’d shown a serious turn of foot to win the Middle Park over six furlongs, the first G1 he captured.

The question is, is he a sprinter or a miler?

His debut at Naas was over 5f which proved too sharp however up to the Middle Park his runs were all then at 6f.

He’s by War Front out of Misty For Me. She got a mile and then some so you’d say he’s likely to find this mile within his compass and when asked he’d no problem in stepping up to 7f in the Dewhurst.

He has something else going for him, besides being a double G1 winner. His stable companions, who lead the betting here, have not yet encountered Newmarket’s famous dip before. It can unbalance a horse who lacks experience. Gustav Klimt did win the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket but that was over the July course and Saxon Warrior will encounter the course for the first time.

US Navy Flag on the other hand bossed both the Middle Park and Dewhurst grabbing the ground and powering out of the dip on both occasions. With the ground drying out and that crucial course experience it’s likely the 20/1 won’t last, come post time he could be a lot shorter.

A few hours later Mendelssohn will take his chance in the Run For The Roses in Kentucky. His prep run in Dubai on dirt was nothing short of stunning winning by a going away 18L and Aidan O”Brien reports him in rude health now. If he reproduces what he did in Dubai and what what he did in chasing home US Navy Flag last year in the Dewhurst he’ll be very hard to stop.

Recommendations: US Navy Flag 20/1 e/w

                                         Mendelssohn 9/2 e/w

                                           US Navy Flag, Mendelssohn  e/w double