Category Archives: Comment

Paddy 100/1 Ain’t Half Good Enough

I bought a really bad product recently.

I made a complaint to the shops website on the advise of the staff in the actual shop and got a courteous e-mail back to tell me my mail had been received and they would be back to me as soon as they could. They pride themselves on customer care so I was happy they would come back to me.

It took a few reminders however they answered.

I had thought what I bought was something really special only to find its performance was 50% less when compared with its market competitors. Disappointing, especially when added to the fact that the company make such a big thing about national loyalty, continuously playing the card in their marketing blurb, online, on telly and in their shops. Come on you boy’s in ….

Yeah, until it costs us you mean. Come on your boys in green.

I bought myself a €6.25 reverse forecast on the Melbourne Cup following the blog I wrote on the race (below this one). Rekindling and Johannes Vermeer to come first and second in either order.

Rekindling & Johannes Vermeer RFC

The 14/1 shot beat the 12/1 shot, Joseph O’Brien the son beats his father Aidan. Willie Mullins fills third. The Irish are the toast of Melbourne. The exacta paid 211/1, happy days. €12.50 turns into €1,325. Boom, as they like to say, in their marketing blurb.

The Scene Of The Crime, Paddy Power, Baggot Street, Dublin

Until I went to collect.

Great news said the settler across the counter, there’s €631.25 coming back on that. That doesn’t make sense I said, it paid 211/1 to a €6.25 stake.

Try calling the retail support office they said, they’ll explain it to you.

Hello I placed a bet and can’t understand the payout. Can you tell me. Yes, I dealt with this earlier said the nice girl in the support office. Our SP was 10/1 on the winner and 9/1 on the second. So I asked is this the maths then, ten multiplied by 6.25, add one to the second place to make it ten and multiply again.

6.25 x 10 = 62.50 x 10 = 625 plus 6.25 back = 631.25.

Can I have your e-mail address I asked.


I placed two cash bet’s in Baggot St for a RFC on the Melbourne Cup. Slips attached.

I was in the shop today I have been told the return will pay 100/1 by your kind staff.

I found that odd and called your retail support team who explained this is based on Paddy Power’s SP of 10/1 for the winner and 9/1 for the second. The return for the bet then being 10×10=100

The SP given generally by the media after such a tremendous result for the Irish was 1st Rekindling returned at 14/1 and 2nd Johannes Vermeer returned at 12/1

If I calculate the return using the formulae as above then the return should be 14×13=182

It’s worth noting the official returns for the exacta were S-Tab 199.10, NSW 211.70 and UBET 188.40.

Other bookmakers are honouring the UBET return of 188.40. See attached William Hill webpage. I note Paddy Power has not published the result of the race on it’s own website. 

William Hill Melbourne Cup Result paying 188.40 for the F/C

Can you please explain why Paddy Power’s is not using the SP as understood by the rest of the public or why the exacta of 188.40 as honoured by other bookmakers is not being paid.


And the reply from Paddy.


My name is …..  and I work as part of the Retail Helpdesk in Paddy Power.

The 14/1 that was advertised by the Racing Post and that some other bookmakers may have paid on was determined by the tote dividend returned by the race track.

As there was no industry SP returned Paddy Power settles these bets out in accordance with our rules, which is on Australian racing we pay out on the last price offered by Paddy Power.

You will find this on the rules poster in any of our shops or on our website under Help Centre.

Your bet has been settled correctly in accordance with our rules and we will not be making any amendments to this.

If you have any further questions, do not hesitate to contact me or my colleagues at

Thanks for the clarity Paddy.

There we are, as there was no industry SP Paddy could choose their own, stupid me. Paddy wouldn’t put the result up in its shops or on its website. It was a secret. Shush, don’t tell anybody.

Is it Paddy Power policy to manipulate SP’s in order to boost profits beyond this years expectations of €450m? Or did I just not have my lucky pants on?

Paddy’s Green Friday was the gig yesterday. Really Paddy. So was the first Tuesday in November, the day of the race that stops a nation, Paddy’s Black Tuesday? Or was it just that was for me.

Johnny, Paddy Power or Betfair? When your happy with half.

Ruby, Betfair or Paddy Power? Always, when you want less.







Aidan O’Brien and the Bobby Frankel World Record (G1)

Aidan O’Brien in the ring at Leopardstown

The bookmakers are offering 5/2 about Aidan O’Brien breaking Bobby Frankel’s record of 25 Group 1/Grade 1 victories in one year which was set in 2003.

Across the world there’s been 183 G1’s run so far this year.

Aidan has won 14 of them giving him an overall strike rate of 8%.

There’s 125 G1’s left to be run this year, 40% of the overall total, so to do it he’ll have to up his strike rate to 10% to break the record.

In that context you’d say 5/2 is probably a skinny price but maybe it’s not too far off the mark either when you consider the brilliance of the man himself and the team behind him. When you consider the power of the Ballydoyle operation, the depth in quantity and more importantly the quality of the horses at his disposal, just the sheer size of the operation means it’s possible.

It’s not probable.

Let’s examine the chances in the context of the G1 contests left that he can challenge for.

Ireland will sign off it’s Group 1 season running the last 5 of it’s 12 G1’s over this Champions Weekend. England have 12 G1’s left, France another 12 with Germany providing a further 2 opportunities and Italy 1 more. That’s 32 G1’s left in Europe.

So if he were to do it running in Europe then the required strike rate would be 38%. Now that’s looking a lot tougher especially when you consider he’ll unlikely have runners in all the remaining races.

Ballydoyle had a team of 14 engaged at Chantilly this Sunday but have decided not to declare anything for either the Prix Vermeille or Prix Du Moulin, the two G1’s which are the centrepiece of a terrific card in France so maybe a third of these European opportunities can be ruled out. This pushes the required strike rate to 54%.

There are other opportunities across the globe.

In America there’s 43 G1’s to be run, 28 on dirt and 15 on turf including 6 at the Breeders Cup at Del Mar in November. In Australia there’s 29 and in Japan there’s 12. Canada has 5 and Hong Kong offer’s another 4 opportunities.

Realistically in the States it is only the Breeders Cup that will provide chances and conceivably Aidan could contest all 6 turf races plus the Breeders Cup Classic on Dirt. In Australia there’s a possibility of 3 if you include the The Cox Plate, The Melbourne Cup and Mackinnon Stakes. In Canada he could contest 4 and in Hong Kong in December chances are they would be no more than 2 opportunities.

When you add up the opportunities, you’re talking about 44/46 range that Aidan could possibly contest. 12 wins then will require a strike rate of 26%. 5/2 doesn’t look so attractive now.

It’s more likely now Bobby Frankel’s record will never now be broken.

To do so requires a level of dominance in a sport which at the top-level is ultra competitive. Aidan O’Brien is best placed to do it but even with the depth of Ballydoyle resources it’s still more impossible than possible.

It’s conceivable he could capture all 5 of the domestic G1’s on offer this weekend as he’ll likely have a favourites chance in all of them. If he did win them all it would bring his tally to 19 sending the bookmakers into overdrive to slash him to odds on to achieve the feat but he’s never done that before, won the last 5 G1’s in Ireland, that in itself is an outlandish feat.

So it can’t be done. Unless.

Unless they targeted Japan. Highland Reel, Seventh Heaven or both could take in the Tenno Sho (Autumn), The Queen Elizabeth Commemorative Cup, The Mile Championship and The Japan Cup, all on turf spaced over 4 weeks beginning the end of October. That’s makes the required strike rate 24%, still highly unlikely but wouldn’t it be something if Aidan was to release his genius out east.

He mightn’t break the record but it would be some achievement to win a Breeders Cup race and a Japan Cup this autumn.

Recommendation: Lay Aidan O’Brien to break Bobby Frankel’s Record.

PS. Paddy Power have just quoted 2/7 for AOB not to break the record.






The Pattern Racing World Championships (Part 2)

Aidan O'Brien

It’s been a good year for Aidan O’Brien and the Coolmore team

This is the 4th Year of the Pattern Racing World Championships (PRWC). 

The PRWC’s tracked the placings of 312 Group/Grade 1’s races across the world and we can now announce the winners of PRWC 2016.

Point’s are awarded for finishing in the top three in Grade 1/Group 1 contests.

Points                1st = 10 pts,                    2nd = 7 pts,                 3rd = 5 pts.

We have 6 categories, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Sire, Owner and Breeder.

In the last post we covered the first 3 categories Horse, Trainer and Jockey and today we cover Owner, Sire and Breeder.

4. The Owners’s Championship’s 2016

PRWC 2016 – Owner
Rank Name Points Scored
1 Coolmore 494
2 Godolphin 379
3 Al Shaqab Racing 133


1st Coolmore Alice Springs on the way in after winning the Coolmore Matron Stakes

1st Coolmore Alice Springs on the way in after winning the Coolmore Matron Stakes

Coolmore take top spot from Goldolphin in a reversal of last years placings. Godolphin actually surpassed last years winning total of 372 points but Coolmore outpaced them going from 330 points up to 494.  The powerhouses in racing are separated by 115 points, that’s a very comfortable margin.

Naturally Ballydoyle were the big winners for Coolmore with 477 points and Simon Callaghan in America added 17 points.

2nd Godolphin Devonshire on her way out for the Coolmore Matron Stakes

2nd Godolphin Devonshire on her way out for the Coolmore Matron Stakes

Godolphin success came from trainers across the globe with John O’Shea in Australia contributing 156 points. In England 165 points were collected with Godolphin’s principle trainers Charlie Appleby winning 73 points and Saeed bin Surorr collecting 47 points. Richard Fahey, John Gosden and Roger Varian also collected in England for them while in the United States Kiaran McLaughlin won 42 points and Jim Bolger in Ireland added 12 points.

3rd Al Shaqab Racing Qemah on her way in after the Coolmore Matron Stakes

3rd Al Shaqab Racing Qemah on her way in after the Coolmore Matron Stakes

Al Shaqab advanced from 7th last year to take 3rd spot this year and will be very happy to have added 56 points on top of the 77 won in 2015. English trainer’s Hugo Palmer and Richard Hannon won 34 points and 12 points respectively. In France Jean-Claude Rouget won 60 points and in America Todd Plecther collected 20 points.

Click here to see where they finished

Click here to see how they did it

5. The Sire’s Championship’s 2016

PRWC 2016 – Sire
Rank Name Points Scored
1 Galileo (IRE) 454
2 Deep Impact (JPN) 204
3 Dubawi (IRE) 146


Galileo retains his crown for the third year in a row with a with a whopping 454 points. He posted 24 wins, 22 2nds and 12 3rds. His winning margin was a massive 250 points and he also improved his winning score by 197 points from last year’s winning total of 257 points.

Ballydoyle horses won 400 points with Minding, Found and Highland Reel putting up 180 points between them. His stunning year was capped off with a first time 1, 2, 3 in the Arc, a feat he also achieved in the 1000 Guineas.

Deep Impact improved a place to 2nd with 11 wins, 7 2nds and 9 3rds.

He also created a first with a clean sweep of Japan’s Triple Crown. Dee Majesty won the Satsuki Sho – Japanese 2000 Guineas, Makahiki the Tokyo Yushun – Japanese Derby and Santono Diamond’s took the Kikuka Sho – Japanese St. Leger.

Dubawi slipped a place to 3rd with 7 wins 8 2nds and 4 3rds. His proudest moments were provided by Postponed who won the Dubai Sheema Classic, Epsom’s Coronation Cup and the International Stakes at York.

Click here to see where they finished

Click here to see how they did it

6. The Breeder’s Championship’s 2016

PRWC 2016 – Breeder
Rank Name Points Scored
1  Darley 268
2  Northern Racing 156
3  Shadai Farm 98


Darley retain top spot on the breeders table improving their total from 241 points to 268 points. They also beat the number of  G1 wins having won 9 last year they upped that to 10 this year. They were 2nd in 15 having dead heated in the Emirates Stakes down under and 3rd in 13. No doubt with the streamlining of the Godolphin and Darley operations they will be looking to retain the title this year.

In Japan Northern Racing will also be very pleased moving from 7th last year on 87 points to 3rd this year on 156 points. They won 6 G1’s were 2nd and 3rd on 8 occasions.

Click here to see where they finished

Click here to see how they did it

Who will be the champions in 2017?

Pattern Racing World Champions 2015 (Jan 1 – June 30)

After 135 Group/Grade 1’s have been run across the world so far this calendar year we thought we’d update you on the Pattern Racing World Championships standings.

We have 6 categories now, Trainer, Jockey, Horse, Sire, Owner and Breeder.

Below are the top 5 in each category.

Remember – For a G1 placing You get 10 points for win 7 for second and 5 for third.

Embed from Getty Images

American Pharoah Triple Crown winner and current  leader in the Pattern Racing World Championships for Horses. Picture by Rob Carr courtesy of Getty Images

Rank Horse PointsWon
1  American Pharoah (USA) 40
2  Able Friend (AUS) 30
2  Gleneagles (IRE) 30
4  Criterion (NZ) 27
5  Dissident (AUS) 25
Rank Trainer Points Won
1 Chris Waller 153
2 Todd Pletcher 110
3 Bob Baffert 101
4 A P O’Brien 88
5 Gai Waterhouse 86
Rank Jockey Points Won
1 Blake Shinn 104
1 Victor Espinoza 104
3 Hugh Bowman 97
4 James McDonald 95
5 Ryan Moore 90
Rank Owner Points Won
1 Godolphin 132
2 M Tabor, D Smith & Mrs John Magnier 54
3 U Carrot Farm 50
3 Zayat Stables LLC 50
5 H H Aga Khan 42
Rank Sire Points Won
1 b c Galileo (IRE) 44
1 b f Fastnet Rock (AUS) 44
3 b c Pioneerof The Nile (USA) 40
4 b c King Kamehameha (JPN) 32
4 b f Deep Impact (JPN) 32
Rank Breeder Total
1 Darley 143
2 Northern Racing 80
3 Northern Farm 50
4 Widden Stud Australia Pty Ltd 40
4 Wertheimer Et Frere 40
4 Zayat Stables Llc 40