Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1) and The Irish 1000 Guineas (Group 1)

With no rain forecast the ground at the Curragh will remain firm, proper racing ground. Long may it continue.

Camelot gives Pattern Racing the eye.

Before the 1000 Guineas we get to see Camelot. He looked in good order before the Mooresbridge Stakes at the Curragh three weeks ago in the ring and the pipe opener proved just that coming from last to first to win easily. More of the same is expected in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

The Qatar Racing filly Just The Judge leads the field in the Guineas on the back of her second to Sky Lantern in the English Guineas at Newmarket. She’s a quality filly having won the Rockfel last autumn. She’s supported on the overseas raid by Maureen from the Richard Hannon stable, sixth at Newmarket, Masarah from thee Clive Brittan stable, eighth at Newmarket and Exactement from the Karl and Elaine Burke yard whose companion Libertarian threw the surprise in the Dante at 33/1.

Of the Irish only Snow Queen contested the English Guineas. Ridden by Ryan Moore on that occasion she sliced through the field to finish well with an eye catching run. Ryan rides Hanky Panky here so presumably the second string with Seamus Heffernan on the Guineas trial winner Just Pretending who won out in a nice run when unsupported in the ring at Leopardstown.

The interesting fillies here are the Eddie Lynam trained Viztoria and the John Oxx pair What Style and Harasiya.

Viztoria was moved from the Ado McGuinness yard after a fine debut when she won her Naas maiden by 7 1/2 L. The concern for Eddie Lynam is the ground. His filly had stamped herself very decent when winning at Listed level beating Snow Queen also by 7 1/2 L here last September. She showed her well being when returning here to get the better of Bunairgead two weeks ago.

What Style has only run twice winning her maiden a 1/2 L from Snow Queen. Her comeback saw her run second to Rawaaq in the Leopardstown Guineas Trial confirming she’s trained on. We don’t know if that’s the same for Harasiya as this will be her first run of the season. Last time out in the Moyglare she went off favourite but couldn’t justify it when going down 2 3/4 L to Sky Lantern. The concern is the lack of the run but she’s one to keep an eye on after this.

On the balance of form using Snow Queen as the benchmark expect this to stay at home with Viztoria overcoming the those ground concerns and marking herself a special filly.

Recommendations : Camelot (too short to back)

                                             Viztoria 7/1 win

Irish 2000 Guineas (Group 1)

Ten line up for the Irish Guineas. No Dawn Approach no superstar for the Irish crowd to admire. The form though is represented by Van Dee Neer third at Newmarket 7 1/4 L behind Jim Bolger’s colt. Richard Hughes is making all the right noises about this fella saying he’ll come on from Newmarket and in truth he sets the benchmark here. He is joined by stable companion Havana Gold who ran second to Toronado in the Craven and then went to Lonchamp to run fifth in a blanket finish in the French equivalent going down 3/4 L.

A place in front of him that day was Gale Force Ten who on jockey bookings looks to be the Ballydoyle second string. The main act of the Aidan O’Brien quartet is Magician  on the back of the impressive Dee Stakes victory where he had 4 L to spare over Contributer who was then turned over in a match at Goodwood. The manner of the win justifies favouritism but the step back in trip from 10 f to a mile is a concern as is the reliability of the form. The third string of O’Brein is George Vancouver whose run in the Guineas was a long way short of his juvenile form.  As a two year old he was only 3 1/4 L behind Dawn Approach in the Dewhurst and then won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita. Flying The Flag who couldn’t land a blow at Lonchamp but did run second in the Futurity to First Cornerstone on heavy last year makes up the team.

Another stepping down in trip is Trading Leather who plugged on in the Dante to take second behind the 33/1 shot shocker Libertarian.

First time officially in the trainers column is the name JP Murtagh. Responsible for two in the race Ask Dad was supplemented at a cost of €30,000. He would appear to be here on pacemaking duty which was possibly part of the deal involving the one Johnny rides, Sheik Mohammad’s newly acquired Fort Knox the winner of the Guineas trial at Leopardstown. Run on bad ground he showed his superiority over an ordinary field and if he can handle this better ground he could give the dream start to Johnny’s already burgeoning training career.

It’s an open Guineas and the sun is shining over the Curragh with the ground riding good to firm. These are the conditions which in 2008 saw Henrythenavigator demolish New Approach. His son George Vancouver thrived in similar conditions at Santa Anita and if your willing to forgive the Newmarket run then he’s the one who can emulate his father.

Recommendation : George Vancouver 12/1 ew 

Derrinstown Stud Derby Trail (Group 2)

A Group 2 of some significance regarding the Epsom Derby market. Originally called the Nijinsky Stakes it has produced choice three year old’s Golden Fleece, Sadler’s Wells, St Jovite, Sinndar, Galileo, High Chaparral, Fame and Glory.

Battle Of Marengo looks to join this elite roll of honour and further strengthen the Irish hand on what already looks a tight grip on Epsom’s Blue Riband. He comes off a smooth Ballysax win where he had the measure of Sugar Boy (subsequently the Sandown Classic Trial winner). Add the Beresford win last year and you can see why the market rates second only to Dawn Approach.

He won’t have it all as easy as one would think as there’s some nice types in opposition. First Cornerstone is the only other to hold an Epsom entry here and Andrew Oliver’s colt proved himself decent when winning the G3 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh last year. He was then no match for Kingsbarns at Doncaster in the Racing Post going down 3 3/4 L.

Don’t Bother Me is unlikely to when it comes to the judge however he boxed above his weight to only go down 10 L to Dawn Approach in the Guineas.

We don’t know a lot about Little White Cloud except to say he’s in at the deep end. Two runs, the last at Dundalk in November give him a lot to do but then it is John Oxx who has sent him into battle. Respect.

The forgotten one from last year is Loch Garman. Left to mature until very late he went to Navan to record his debut victory on the last week of the Irish season. A week later he was in Paris to contest the G1 Criterium International at Saint Cloud. Turning for home he looked to be out of his depth when suddenly the penny dropped and he restlessly galloped home to the line. Questionable what he beat but the manner of his wearing down of those in front was impressive. We know Jim’s don’t need a run.

He can can a stir and green the Blue Riband even more for Coolcullen.

Recommendation : Loch Garman 4/1

Chartwell Fillies Stakes (Group 3)

Interesting Group 3 at Lingfield today.

The form is represented by the French filly Kendam who was third to Gordon Lord Byron in last years G1 Prix De Floret on Arc weekend. She came form off the pace that day to run on well to the line on the autumnal surface that Lonchamp usually provides in October. Twice out this year she was last probably needing the run on the first occasion then second next time suggesting she has trained on.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Ultrasonic has been a consistent type racking up 3 consecutive seconds in Listed company. This is her first run this year and you would worry about the her ability to get her head in front especially first time out.

There’s no concern about the fitness of the Irish filly. She looks the one to overcome. Ger Lyons sends Lily’s Angel back to England having won at Listed level over the all weather Kempton surface a month ago. She seen as a bit of an all weather specialist having also won at Dundalk and Meyden however she had no problem with a good turf surface at Leopardstown last September and she look’s to be a filly on the up.

Recommendation : Lily’s Angel 7/2 win 

Dee Stakes (Group 3)

I don’t think we’ll see a Derby winner come out of this race.

Contributor isn’t in the Derby as he was bought at a breeze-up sale. He ‘s none the less useful having won a conditions event over 10 f at Newbury three weeks ago.

Magician forms looks better since Monday at the Curragh . His one win from four runs was over Bunairgead who ran a good second to Viztoria which sets her up for a tilt at the Irish 1000 Guineas.

Willie The Whipper has a solid look about him, a winner twice who then ran second in the last European Group 1 of the season, the Criterium De Saint Cloud in France at the end of the year. He was beaten 7 L but he is the only one here to have contested at top level.

Gabrial’s Kaka avoided today’s Chester Vase in preference at a crack at this. A good call considering the winner today Ruler Of the World is as short as 6/1 for Epsom. He could only manage third in the Epsom Derby Trial and this is a step up on that.

Glacial Age looks held on one win at Southwell while Holy Warrior didn’t build on an all weather win at Cagnes-Sur-Mer when back in France at for the G3 Prix La Force at Lonchamp.

Not the best of trials however that won’t bother the winner. With the rain getting into the ground Willie The Whipper performance in France might be the form to pay best here.

Recommendation : Willie The Whipper 4/1 win

Yum Brands Kentucky Derby (G1) – An Irish View

In Kentucky Coolmore are already celebrating having bred the Oaks winner Princess Of Sylmar. Hope of more success will be in the hands of Ryan Moore tonight who will partner Lines Of Battle from the Ballydoyle yard. It’s such a huge ask for a European horse to go and win this race but that won’t stop Ballydoyle trying and this year they go with their best chance.

Priced a 30/1 shot on the morning line in America the locals rate him a no hoper. They discount the thought a foreigner can win the biggest race in America especially one whose prep has been on the Tapeta surface in Dubai. Are they right?

Lines Of Battle is by War Front so ticks the first box needed. He’s bred for dirt racing. He ticks a second box. In winning in Dubai he has proven he can travel, compete and win. He ticks a third box. He comes from a yard that has time and again proven themselves on the international stage.

Those three ticks make this price look too big.

Aidan favours sending his horses in late on international raids and once again he has done this with the colt only arriving trackside on Tuesday. The concept is to keep the horse in his own familiar surroundings for as long as possible prior to any raid.

It’s a snatch and grab philosphy that’s proved reliable in the past.

When one considers the quality of the team, Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore and all team Ballydoyle assets, add a dirt pedigree then this doesn’t quite look as dismissive a challenge as 30/1 suggests.

What about the quality of the horse?

Lines Of Battle had six runs.

First time out he beat Leitir Mor (finished second in The Dewhurst, the premier juvenile event in Europe) a head in a Curragh maiden. He then was 6 L inferior to Dawn Approach (champion two year old in Europe, who has just wo the 2000 Guineas) in the Coventry Stakes(G2) at Royal Ascot. He was then beaten a neck by Graffelli in the Tyros Stakes (G3) at Leopardstown. He followed up with a trip to the polytrack at Dundalk where he had Tennessee Wildcat 2 1/2 l behind in a Listed event. Next stop Santa Anita where in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) from a wide draw he ran 6 1/4 L behind stable companion George Vancouver and then in his prep at Meyden he beat Elleval easily.

The pace was slow at Meyden that night as it was for all the contests on the Tapeta and this is the concern. We know from the victories at Dundalk and Meyden that he can handle a synthetic surface but what about a quick dirt surface.  The probability on breeding is the answer is yes. The Dundalk run on a track that can ride slick suggests he will relish a quick surface. Breeding suggests dirt will bring out the best in him.

We know he stays having won over 10 f. We think he’ll like the quick dirt. We know the quality of the team. Add in the good draw, gate 11 and you can see why the noises coming out of Ballydoyle are the type of positives we have come to expect when they know their in with a real chance.

The run for the roses might well come draped in shamrock.

Recommendation : Lines Of Battle Pari Mutuel Price e/w 

OIPCO 2000 Guineas Stakes (G1)

Dawn Approach (Photo credit: Tote Ireland)

Classic action is upon this weekend.

In America the run for the roses takes center stage with the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs while in England the 2000 Guineas is the focus. Both contests are of enormous importance for the breeding shed ultimately. Here we’ll look at the Guineas.

At Newmarket the standout is Dawn Approach, the son of  New Approach who was just touched off by Henrythenavigator in 2008 Guineas. Jim Bolger’s colt comes here as an unbeaten six-time winning juvenile. Out of the blocks on the first day of the season he was kept on the go to Royal Ascot where he bagged the Coventry Stakes (G2). Jim then gave him a break bringing him back in the autumn for Ireland’s and England’s premier juvenile events The National (G1) and Dewhurst Stakes (G1). The criticism you hear of the colt is that he didn’t beat that much through his juvenile campaign and his racing style, lazy, will catch him out as a three year old. Neither criticism stand up. At Ascot he beat Olympic Glory unbeaten since including the Prix Jean-Luc Langardere , France’s premier juvenile race. In the National he beat the outsider Designs On Rome and stable companion Leitir Mor. Designs On Rome had previously come second to Sugar Boy who last week won the Sandown Classic Trial. The form stands up.

It’s ten years since the last Craven winner Haafhd went on to success in the Guineas. Toronado the winner of this year is second favourite in the bookmakers lists. Richard Hannon’s colt like the Godolphin colt is also unbeaten with a record of four from four. He beat Dundonnell twice in the Champagne Stakes (G2) last year and in the Craven again this year where he was an impressive winner. Does his style of racing put him anywhere near Dawn Approach?

Garswood from the Richard Fahey team comes into the frame on the back of a European Free Handicap win also at Newmarket three weeks ago. Again he did it well and on the back of it has been the subject of a sustained gamble all week.

Ballydoyle play third fiddle here with three runners. Pilot bookings indicate that Cristoforo Colombo, a son of Henrythenavigator is their most forward. He’s a one time winner from five attempts, the win on the first visit to the racecourse. He come’s into the reckoning here on the back of a third placed effort in the Coventry where he was beaten a length by Dawn Approach. He was unlucky next time out when he clipped heels and fell in the Phoenix Stakes and in his next and final run in the Middle Park(G1) he failed to land a blow 2 1/4 L behind Reckless Abandon. George Vancouver another son of Henrythenavigator has some to find with Dawn Approach being 3 1/2 L down on him in the Dewhurst however he did follow up the run by winning The Breeders Cup Turf Juvenile (G1) at Santa Anita. Mars is the unknown quantity, well touted prior to his one and only racecourse appearance he did his job as he pleased. He could be anything but to overcome his lack of experience against this quality field is a big ask especially when you take the dip into account over the Rowley mile.

The Bolger second string is intriguing, Leitir Mor. The expectation is he’s there to provide the pace for the favourite. A job he’ll no doubt do. He does have some smart form in his own right and with twelve runs as a two year old he’s certainly the most experienced runner in the field. He was only beaten a head by Lines Of Battle on his second run and in his last run in the Dewhurst where he made the running for his stablemate he stayed on to be second beaten only 2 3/4 L.  He’s also a G3 winner in the Round Tower last year where he had Cristoforo Columbo in behind. Jim also considered keeping him for Paris next week so he holds him in some esteem.

Last year in the Dewhurst we recommended the forecast and here although a step up to 8 f is a concern we however see it no different. If he sets a good and not silly pace he may well stay on with only one or two getting past him.

At the odds available he’s worth backing each way.

Recommendation : Dawn Approach 6/4 win

                                         Leitir Mor 66/1 ew

                                        Dawn Approach and Leitir Mor F/C (small stake)