Prix Du Jockey Club (Group 1)

Chantilly moves centre stage in the European Pattern Calender.

This is a competitive affair with 20 runners. After Camelot’s Derby victory all eyes will be on French Fifteen. His Guineas second looking all the better post Epsom. Leading the opposition will be the Greffulhe winner Kesampour. Aga Khan owed, this Mickael Delzangles trained colt is unbeaten in four. He won the Greffulhe a head from the Andre Fabre trained Albion who benefits from having Frankie Dettori as a partner today. Lunayir, the other Aga Khan runner has Johnny Murtagh in the plate.

Imperial Monarch has half the experience and hails from the all conquering Ballydoyle stable of Aidan O’Brien. The win at Sandown in the classic trial over Thought Worthy leaves him with something to find given that Thought Worthy was 11 1/2 L behind Camelot today. He raced wide giving away a lot of ground, actually a hell of a lot of ground, but still got up to win under an audacious ride from Joseph O’Brien. Ballydoyle’s record at Chantilly for the present incumbent is 0 from 23 with the last winner from the yard being Caerleon in 1983, trained the maestro Vincent O’Brien.

Roger Varian sends Ektihaam. He found Bonfire 3/4 L too good in the Dante, form that took a bit of a knock today, though in fairness 12 f looked beyond Bonfire, the 10 f today won’t be an issue for Ektihaam having accomplished it at York.

A chance for classic glory for Godolphin comes courtesy of Saint Baudolino. Andre Fabre trained and to be ridden by Maxine Guyon he’s a winner of his last two, in the latter getting the better of So Fast in a barging match in the Prix De Guiche. So Fast re opposes here having only a short neck to find.

Hard Dream won the Prix Noailles from Tifongo on near bottomless ground at Lonchamp. The good to soft here shouldn’t inconvenience him and Tifongo also takes his chance here. In the Prix Hocquart Top Trip saw out the 11 f to see off Masterstroke. The step down in distance shouldn’t be a problem for Francois Doumen’s inmate.

The French Guineas form is represented via Amaron,Gregorian and Nutello. Amaron and Gregorian ran fourth and fifth in a bunch finish where a 1/2 L seperated the first six while Nutello ran tenth 2 1/2 L down.

We finally get to see Brian Meehan’s Most Improved on the racecourse at three. Before the Guineas he was the talking horse. Third in the Dewhurst going down 3/4 L to Parish Hall he comes here with no prep run. It’ll be a tremendous accomplishment if he can pull it off.

This may boil down to the form of French Fifteen versus the dominance of Ballydoyle. Then theirs all that spring talk about Most Improved. As I said, its open and competitive but the troika, Magnier, Tabor and Smith from Ballydoyle will want to win this and considering they left it late to reroute their colt from Epsom to Chantilly they must be thinking Derby double with Imperial Monarch.

The Derby ( Group 1)

It could be the best Derby in years.

The case for Camelot is strong and convincing.

He was a very impressive winner of the Racing Post Trophy last year in the style of St Nicholas Abbey. He then added the 2000 Guineas when coming through the field to cosily win from French Fifteen. He is bred for middle distances so to win the Guineas as he did spells class, class of a very special kind.

The Derby sees its smallest field since 1907. The main protagonists we envisaged to see are at home. No Akeed Mofeed, no Parish Hall .

It’s left to Bonfire to test the quality of Camelot. Thankfully he is a colt who can put it up to Camelot. In Paris last autumn he was an unlucky loser in the Criterium International at Saint Cloud. He saw daylight too late but when he did get a run he quickened and the 1 3/4 L he went down to French Fifteen was fast diminishing. After missing Chester, because of the weather, he got back on the course in the Dante at York. Always a top drawer Derby trial he did it well in a battling performance winning 3/4 L from Ekithamm. Andrew Balding’s concern going to York was that if he had a hard race recovery time was tight going to the Derby. Truth is, it was a hard enough race and this will be a concern for the Balding team come post time.

Astrology showed himself to be no mug when winning the Dee Stakes by 11 L while Main Sequence can hardly be accused of doing anything wrong being unbeaten in four including the Lingfield Derby Trial. Thought Worthy couldn’t cope with the rerouted Imperial Monarch in the Sandown Classic Trial  and Mickdaam, a Chester Vase winner would be a big surprise considering what he showed in four runs at Meyden.

The measure here is French Fifteen. Camelot beat him, Bonfire with a clear run could have beaten him.

We’ll have a battle with three horses in it, Camelot, Bonfire and Astrology. In the last two furlongs these three will fight it out, class will win, the class will come from Camelot, just.

The Oaks ( Group 1)

Maybe, The Fugue and Vow dominate this race. Maybe on her unbeaten two year old form, The Fugue on her impressive Guineas fourth and follow up victory in the Musidora and Vow on a win in the Lingfield Oaks Trial.

Maybe, who went through the gears easily as a juvenile from Group 3 to Group 1,  gets the ground in her favour as will be the case for The Fugue.  In The Musidora The Fugue stretched out having no difficulty putting 4 1/2 L between herself and Twirl. We don’t know about it for Vow as her trial was on Lingfield’s  standard all weather surface and her one run as a two year old was on the soft. Greenness was the feature when hanging in the straight but ability pulled her through. How much of it she has, we’ll find out here.

No mount for Frankie Dettori as Mickael Barzalona takes the Godolphin ride on Kailani. She won at listed level by 7 L, something bettered by Kissed who won by 8 1/2 also in listed company. This is a feat that neither Shirocco Star or Colima could manage as both were beaten in their trials. Coquet did manage to it but only by a neck in her trial.

Inexperience can prove a problem here, the ability to handle the camber often is too much for fillies so early in their career. Of those at the top of the market Maybe is best positioned to deal with it and she also has form in the book.

Of those at fancy prices Twirl is the one that offers most value. Dismissed in the market after her defeat in the Musidora she previously looked a good filly in the making on her two year old runs. She might just of learnt enough from the York run and the extra two furlongs will suit this daughter of Galileo and full sister to Misty For Me. At 50/1 she is the each way choice.

The Abu Dhabi Irish 2000 Guineas (Group 1)

Born To Sea runs in the Irish Guineas this weekend

The skills of Jim Bolger will be tested over the course of the next two weekends.

His colt, Parish Hall will try to win the Irish Guineas and Epsom Derby. There is only a week between the two races this year as opposed to two weeks when Jim tried to pulled off the same feat with New Approach in 2008. Beaten into second at the Curragh by Henrythenavigator, as he was at Newmarket in the English equivalent, he went on to win at Epsom.

Parish Hall stamped his authority in the Dewhurst last year at Newmarket when coming up the stand side outclassing his rivals. His price of 20/1 was a surprise but his win wasn’t as advised here. (see the post on the Dewhurst).  Previously he had been second to Dragon Pulse in the Futurity and the tip was taken when Bolger sent him to the Dewhurst.

Mikael Delzangles sends Hermival to improve on his third in the English Guineas. He’s lightly raced having had just the one run on the last day of the season  when winning his maiden. Brought back to contest the Prix Djebel he finished third to French Fifteen and Abtaal before finishing in the same position to Camelot and French Fifteen at Newmarket.

John Oxx runs two, Takar and Born To Sea. The former tired on his first experience at the racecourse when running fourth in a maiden but came on a ton to win a maiden by 8 L on the last day of the Irish season.  He returned to again win impressively in the Tetrarch Stakes here two weeks ago. He’ll be cherry ripe for this now. Born To Sea blew his chance at Newmarket when failing to settle in the first two furlongs. In an attempt to overcome this John has decided to run him wearing a hood in this event. If it works and he can preserve his energies until the second half of the race he may well leave the English run behind him.

Trumpet Major was a place behind Hermival at Newmarket and he will certainly improve on the fast ground at the Curragh this weekend. He won the Craven on a decent surface having had a mixed juvenile campaign. Fifth in the Dewhurst, he did win the Champagne Stakes  on good to firm ground.

Ballydoyle have won three of the last four Irish Guineas with Henrythenavigator ,Mastercraftsman and Rodrick O’Connor. Wrote,Reply, Daddy Long Legs and Power represent Aidan O’Brien here. Power ran an absolute stinker at Newmarket trailing in an eased down 37 L. He hated the ground and may also have felt the effects of the setback he reportedly had over the winter. He deserves to take his chance on his two year old form which saw him win the Coventry and National Stakes and come second in the Phoenix and Dewhurst Stakes.

Wrote was a winner at the Breeders Cup taking the Juvenile Turf while Daddy Long Legs, also a runner at Churchill Downs in the Juvenile Dirt took the UAE Derby at Meydan before a crack at the Kentucky Derby. He returns to turf for the first time this year. Reply, third in the Middle Park will probably set the pace here.

The good weather in Ireland this week will mean the ground will ride good to firm. It will be to the benefit of most of the participants.

In the skill test, Jim Bolger may go one better than he did in 2008. Parish Hall may go to Epsom with one prayer answered and with another week of praying, well who knows.

The JLT Lockinge Stakes Stakes (Group 1)

Frankel.

Dante Stakes (Group 2)

The big question for the Dante is, will it produce an alternative to Camelot for the Derby?

The lazy answer is no it won’t. There is no three year old alive who can disrupt the ambitions of the favourite for Epsom, so the market tell’s us. Yet yesterday the Musidora put up a real genuine challenger for the Oaks in the shape of The Fugue. Why can’t the Dante do the same for the Derby? The race has a tremendous record when it comes to providing Derby winners, 9 in all with the last being Authorised in 2007. Workforce was second here in 2010. It’s also produced some serious top performers who haven’t won the Derby, the like’s of Cape Blanco and Sakhee, second to Sinndar at Epsom. This race has pedigree, 2012 will be no different.

Andrew Balding must be glad he resisted the ground at Chester and hung on to run here. His colt Bonfire will certainly have a much better chance of being ready for the Derby running here then slogging it out in a tough race last week where recovery time might have been doubled. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll win this but a good show on decent ground gives him every chance of making the gate at Epsom in his prime. There’s an awful lot to like about him. His two runs last year, especially when an unlucky third to French Fifteen in the Criterium International suggests he can suck the rarified air of Group 1 success.

The opposition here will put it up to him. Mandaean like Bonfire is a son of Manduro. He is already a Group 1 winner having won the Criterium De Saint-Cloud at the death of last season. He beat the filly Brocottes by 2 1/2 L though the value of the form is questionable as she doesn’t appear to have trained on in her two runs this year. Even so, having transferred from Andre Fabre he still represents Godolphin’s best opportunity this year of lifting the blue riband.

Ernest Hemingway could be anything. A 10 L winner of a Dundalk maiden in April tells us he is another talented son of Galileo. This will be his first test in reality and we’ll know more about him after post time.

Rodger Varian must believe he has a good colt on his hands in Ektihaam. Twice a winner from two starts before misfiring in the Dewhurst he returned to Newbury to win another conditions event by 5 L. The trainer pitches him in here for another crack at the big time.

The Guineas form is tested here with the sixth and seventh, Fencing and Ptolemaic. Not so sure their performances here will alter our view of the race or the winner but you’d have to wonder why the former is a 6/1 shot while the latter is 66/1 shot when only a 1/2 L separated them at Newmarket. Fencing may do what his stablemate did yesterday and improve well beyond what he did in the Guineas  but so may Bryan Smart’s colt who punched above his weight behind Camelot.

Pedigree, this race has it.

It could well put a Bonfire to the Derby market.

Musidora Stakes (Group 3)

The classic picture is near complete.  The last brush of the Oaks canvass comes courtesy of the Musidora. In the past, six York winners have gone on to Epsom glory, the last being Sariska three years ago.

Thankfully the word “good” appears in the ground description at York tomorrow for the first time in a very long time. It’s been a miserable spring in Europe and trainers, jockeys and punters must be grateful to see the prospect of some decent ground. It might give the winner here an edge come the first weekend in June.

The market will have a tough time separating The Fugue and Twirl. Neither have much experience but both have created the impression of being high class fillies in what they’ve shown on the racecourse to date. John Gosden brought The Fugue back after one winning juvenile run to contest the Guineas first time out.  She did very well to take fourth. A run full of promice considering she was struck into but seems to made a rapid recovery. She’s bound to benefit for the step up in trip but being by Dansili she might just have preferred the ground to remain on the softer side.

Twirl has the benefit of one more racecourse experience than her main rival. She made her debut late in the season, on the second last day at Leopardstown.  It was an eye catching performance when running on to be third and she followed up the next week with a 6 L maiden victory. Out again on the first day of the season she went down to Chrysanthemum in the Park Express Stakes. She ran well tiring in the ground but staying on nicely to the four year old. She’s also  a full sister to Misty For Me, a four time Group 1 winner.

Expect her to win here and add to the already strong hand Ballydoyle have for the Oaks.

In the Duke Of York Stakes (Group 2) the French filly Restiadargent has some nice form. She won a Group 2 last backend over this distance and was beaten less than a length on her comeback run in the Prix Imprudence over 7 F. The step back in trip will suit and in an open race and she could go well at a nice price.